Similarly, in north-east Brazil, a study led by the National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warnings of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) found flooding events of the Parnaiba River in 2018, 20 were made ~30% more likely. The results of the study found such an event, in which 97% of the average monthly rainfall fell in just three days, was 70% more likely to occur in the current climate compared to a world with no human-induced climate change. One such study, led by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), focussed on the 2020 floods in the south-eastern Minas Gerais region, which resulted in more than 50 deaths and the displacement of over 90,000 people. Collaborative work through CSSP Brazil has investigated the link between some recent flooding events and climate change. For individual events, attribution studies can inform us about how human-induced climate change has altered the likeliness of the event occurring.Įxtreme rainfall, or lack thereof, is the dominant climate hazard in Brazil, with flooding, drought and landslides linked to around 70% of weather-related disasters. The frequency and intensity of weather and climate extreme events across the globe is already changing, with many regions seeing greater impacts compared to pre-industrial times. Rainfall How are extreme events changing? Recent research has been collated in a special issue of the Royal Meteorological Society’s Climate Resilience and Sustainability journal. Knowledge gained through this research is already advancing forecasting capability for extreme events, which may help to further develop disaster management plans and reduce impacts. The CSSP Brazilproject, supported by the UK Government’s Newton Fund, is continuing to develop the science required to build and improve essential climate services in Brazil.
In Brazil, the diverse nature of the climate means multiple hazards pose a threat to public health, agriculture, infrastructure and the economy. Developing forecasting systems that can provide warnings early enough is crucial for guiding disaster management strategies.
However, in many regions these systems are yet to be fully developed and further research is required to understand the drivers of extreme events, how they are changing with increasing emissions and how well they can be forecast. According to the World Meteorological Organization, half of these events have been caused by weather and climate hazards, which have cost over US$ 3.64 trillion in losses between 19.ĭespite the increase in extreme events, the number of deaths has decreased thanks to proactive disaster management enabled by early warning systems. Globally, extreme weather and climate events have become five times more frequent over the last 50 years. The United Nations Environment Programme estimates that adapting to climate change and coping with damages will cost developing countries $140-300 billion per year by 2030.New research through the Climate Science for Service Partnership Brazil project is developing our understanding of extreme events and advancing forecasting capability.More than 20 million people a year are forced from their homes by climate change.Between 20, the rate of global sea-level rise was 2.5 times faster than it was for almost all of the 20th century.The number of climate-related disasters has tripled in the last 30 years.The evidence is overwhelming and the results devastating: Increases of air and water temperatures lead to rising sea levels, supercharged storms and higher wind speeds, more intense and prolonged droughts and wildfire seasons, heavier precipitation and flooding. Simply put, changes in the global climate exacerbate climate hazards and amplify the risk of extreme weather disasters. From Mozambique to Bangladesh millions of people have already lost their homes, livelihoods, and loved ones as a result of more dangerous and more frequent extreme weather events. The last year alone has seen a series of devastating climate disasters in various parts of the world such as Cyclone Idai, deadly heatwaves in India, Pakistan, and Europe, and flooding in south-east Asia. However, we are currently witnessing a scale of destruction and devastation that is new and terrifying. We’ve always had hurricanes, droughts and wildfires, flooding and high winds. Climate hazards are natural events in weather cycles.
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