This provides a coherent framework for modelling complex data structures, dealing with data sparsity, exploiting dependencies between data sources and propagating the inherent uncertainties present in both the data and the modelling process. This has led to the increasing development of a range of space-time methods specifically designed for NCD surveillance.We present an overview of recent advances in spatio-temporal disease surveillance for NCDs using hierarchically specified models. Surveillance methods need to be able to detect meaningful departures from expectation and exploit dependencies within such data to produce unbiased estimates of risk as well as future forecasts. Traditionally, the methodological and conceptual frameworks for surveillance have been designed for infectious diseases, but the rising burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) worldwide suggests a pressing need for surveillance strategies to detect unusual patterns in the data and to help unveil important risk factors in this setting. Surveillance systems are commonly used to provide early warning detection or to assess an impact of an intervention/policy.
Piel F, Shaddick G, Elliott P et al., 2020, Advances in spatio-temporal models for non-communicable disease surveillance, International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 49, Pages: i26-i37, ISSN: 1464-3685 The canine serological survey presented as a protective factor only in the two-year lag model.ConclusionsThe canine serological coverage, even at low intensity, carried out jointly with the culling of the positive dogs, suggested a decreasing effect on the occurrence of the disease in humans, whose effects would be seen two years after it was carried out. The behavior of the temporal tendency in the human disease presented distinct patterns in the two municipalities, however, in both the tendency was to decline. The modeling was performed using the INLA (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations) deterministic approach, considering both the numbers of cases as well as the coverage paired year by year and lagged at one and two years.ResultsControl activity coverage was observed to be generally low. The Besag-York-Mollie models were applied for random spatial effects, as also were autoregressive models of order 1 for random temporal effects. To do this, latent Gaussian Bayesian models with the incorporation of a spatio-temporal structure and Poisson distribution were used. This study sought to measure the Leishmania infantum seroprevalence in dogs, the coverage of its control activities (identification of the canine reservoir by serological survey, dog culling and insecticide spraying) and to evaluate its relationship with the occurrence of the disease in humans in the municipalities of Araçatuba and Birigui, state of São Paulo, Brazil.MethodsInformation from 2006 to 2015 was georeferenced for each municipality and modeling was performed for the two municipalities together. Tolezano J, Mitsuyoshi Hiramoto R, Colebrusco Rodas L, Silva Cipriano R, Blangiardo M, Chiaravalloti-Neto F et al., 2020, Canine serological survey and dog culling ant its relationship with Human Visceral leishmaniasis in an endemic urban area., BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol: 20, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 1471-2334īackgroundVisceral leishmaniasis is an important but neglected disease that is spreading and is highly lethal when left untreated. Marques Moralejo Bermudi P, Nunes Carneiro Castro Costa D, Maroni Nunes C,
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